The FWD #164 • 654 Words
It’s time to start looking forward at Virginia’s housing landscape in 2030.
The 2020 Census revealed a smaller U.S. population than many expected, driven by lower net immigration and declining birth rates. Despite this, Virginia actually tallied higher-than-estimated growth over the last decade. However, a closer look at the data shows that trend might not be here to stay, and the housing community should take note.
Population growth is unevenly distributed across the state.
All of Virginia’s population gains since 2010 were concentrated in large and small metro areas, especially Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Northern Shenandoah Valley. Within these regions, growth was most common in the suburbs and, for NOVA, the highest-density communities near Washington, D.C.
Meanwhile, every part of rural Virginia lost population, particularly non-metro counties. These losses were a continuation of longer trends stemming from economic declines that began several decades ago.
Declining school enrollment: canary in the coal mine?
According to the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, school enrollment across the Commonwealth increased by 42,000 in the 2010s, primarily from growth in large Northern Virginia school districts that offset declines in nearly all of rural Virginia.
In just two years, the COVID-19 pandemic erased all of those gains. Parents have shifted their children into private school and homeschooling options at record rates.
However, this decline was likely to happen regardless, as new kindergarten classes have gotten smaller since 2013. Researchers originally predicted a total school enrollment decline of 50,000 by 2030, a drop-off that is likely to get larger.
Virginia might be growing, but it’s growing older too.
Annual births in the Commonwealth have decreased since the late 2000s. While this has been common throughout non-metro parts of the state, the sharpest declines in births over the past five years have been in Northern Virginia. Combined with negative net domestic migration and declining international immigration, Virginia’s fastest-growing areas are starting to cool down.
These trends also mean that Virginia’s metro areas are catching the age wave. Their rural counterparts have been riding it for some time, as older folks begin making up a larger portion of the population. Virginia’s fastest-growing age group over the last decade has been 55 and over, especially “young” seniors between 65 and 74.
It’s time to prepare for these generational ripple effects.
It’s clear to see how a shrinking youth population leads to fewer college graduates and a smaller workforce for Virginia’s economy past 2030. Beyond this immediate impact on the job market, policymakers should also understand the likely implications for the housing market over the next several decades.
One near certainty is the ever-increasing need to satisfy demand for safe options for seniors to age-in-place, of whom many have outlived their need for a large home in the suburbs for their now-grown children. Seniors in rural areas, who more commonly have disabilities and live in less accessible housing, will need additional support networks.
Nationwide, most homebuyers now do not have children, and are concerned more about neighborhood quality and proximity to friends and family than school. Home designs and land use policy may likewise need to de-prioritize the prototypical 2,500 sqft, 4-bedroom suburban home that’s accounted for the bulk of Virginia’s housing production over the past few decades.
A recent Bloomberg opinion piece makes the case that most people won’t want to live in areas experiencing population decline, and even warns of “demographic refugees” moving from communities of low opportunity to higher opportunity. Local governments in Virginia’s urban crescent will need to plan for this increased housing demand by removing barriers to new supply and investing in smart growth strategies to limit strains on infrastructure.
Do you have an interesting story on how changing demographics are impacting housing affordability, planning, and construction in your community? If so, get in touch and consider writing a guest blog to share your perspective.