The FWD #229 • 929 words

Climate Migration and Virginia’s Housing Market: Preparing for the Great Inland Shift

While headlines about climate change often focus on rising temperatures and extreme weather events, a less discussed but potentially more transformative impact is already beginning to reshape Virginia’s communities: climate migration. As coastal areas face increasing threats from sea-level rise and intensifying storms, Virginia stands at a crossroads—both losing and gaining population through climate-driven movement that will fundamentally reshape the Commonwealth’s housing landscape over the coming decades.

The Coastal Retreat: Virginia’s Front Line

Virginia’s 7,213 miles of coastline place it squarely in the path of climate change’s most visible impacts. The Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Plan has identified severe challenges ahead:

• Nearly 170,000 acres (89%) of existing tidal wetlands and 3,800 acres (38%) of beaches may be permanently lost to rising waters by 2080
• Coastal communities on the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and Hampton Roads face particularly high risk
• Roads that currently flood occasionally will be regularly underwater, isolating homes and communities
• Septic systems will increasingly fail as groundwater levels rise

Norfolk and Virginia Beach, home to nearly 600,000 people combined, are sinking at approximately 2mm per year while facing accelerating sea-level rise. Yes, you read that correctly—land is sinking at the same time the oceans are rising. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hampton Roads could see sea levels rise by 10-14 inches by 2050—a change that will occur regardless of future emissions reductions due to warming already locked in.

The Housing Vulnerability Equation

Climate vulnerability intersects directly with housing affordability challenges. According to climate research organization Climate Central, affordable housing units in coastal areas face disproportionate risk from rising seas and flooding. In Norfolk, an additional 710 units of affordable housing are expected to be at risk of flooding in the coming decades. Nationwide, the number of affordable housing units exposed to coastal flooding is projected to more than triple to nearly 25,000 by 2050.

These risks compound Virginia’s existing housing challenges:

• Median home prices that have increased 80% over a recent four-year period (from $329,000 in Q4 2020 to $415,000 in Q4 2024)
• A 40% decrease since 2019 in the percentage of Virginia homes sold for $200,000 or less
• As of 2022, there were approximately 105,000 missing housing units in the state’s inventory.

The Great Inland Shift: Where Virginians Will Go

Climate migration won’t just push people out of vulnerable areas—it will also pull them toward regions perceived as more climate-resilient. Within Virginia, several trends are emerging:

Receiving Communities: Virginia’s Piedmont and western regions may become increasingly attractive for those looking to move away from the coast. Cities like Charlottesville, Roanoke, and the Shenandoah Valley communities offer relative protection from coastal flooding while maintaining proximity to economic opportunities. Richmond, despite some flood risk from the James River, sits high enough above sea level to avoid the worst coastal impacts while offering urban amenities.

Infrastructure Challenges: These potential receiving communities face significant infrastructure challenges. According to past Brookings Institution analysis, Virginia’s inland areas already struggle with housing shortages, aging infrastructure, and limited public transportation networks—challenges that would be exacerbated by population influx.

Housing Market Impacts: Early research on climate migration suggests receiving communities often experience substantial housing market disruptions without proper planning. The Urban Institute’s examination of previous climate-driven migrations (such as from New Orleans to Houston after Hurricane Katrina) showed housing prices can spike rapidly, displacing existing vulnerable residents.

The Economics of Climate Movement

Climate migration presents both challenges and opportunities for Virginia’s housing market:

Challenges:

• Declining property values in high-risk coastal areas as insurance costs rise and buyer interest wanes
• Potential for “climate gentrification” as inland areas see increased demand
• Uneven economic impacts as some communities grow while others decline

Opportunities:

• Revitalization potential for inland communities that have experienced population decline
• Construction sector growth to meet housing demand in receiving areas
• Innovation in climate-resilient building techniques and materials

Looking Ahead: Virginia in 2050

The Virginia we know today will look markedly different by mid-century. While gradual, climate migration is already underway through individual choices about where to buy homes, start businesses, and raise families. According to a 2023 Redfin analysis, areas with high flood risk nationwide experienced significant population growth during the pandemic years—but forward-looking buyers and developers are increasingly considering climate risks in their decision-making.

In the meantime, there are conflicting indications of federal investment in disaster prevention. In a very unusual move, President Trump turned down Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s request for funds for hazard mitigation as part of the disaster aid package. According to 27-year-old FEMA records, it was the first time in at least 27 years that a president had rejected a state’s request for hazard-mitigation funding while granting its request for a disaster declaration. Disaster mitigation funds are frequently requested by governors and approved by presidents.

For Virginia’s housing market, preparation for change will be essential. Communities that anticipate and plan for population changes—both decreases along the coast and increases inland—will be better positioned to maintain vibrant, affordable housing markets through the transition.

Virginia’s housing organizations, including HousingForward Virginia, have a critical role to play in:

• Documenting migration patterns to identify emerging trends
• Advocating for equitable policies that protect vulnerable residents
• Supporting comprehensive planning that integrates climate resilience with housing affordability

Beyond the Rising Tide

Climate migration represents one of the most profound yet under-discussed challenges facing Virginia’s housing sector. Moving beyond reactive approaches to more strategic, long-term planning will be essential to ensure that all Virginians have access to safe, affordable housing regardless of how climate patterns shift in the decades ahead.

By addressing these challenges proactively, Virginia can turn the challenge of climate migration into an opportunity to build more resilient, equitable communities from the mountains to the sea.

What climate migration trends are you observing in your Virginia community? We’d love to hear your experiences and insights. Reach out to us with your observations!